Wednesday, August 26, 2009

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marcus Banks 0.2 0.3 0.5 3 5.8 4.4
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT
Quincy Douby 0.4 0.6 1 4.9 6.4 5.6
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Patick O'Bryant 0.5 2 2.5 4.8 20.6 12.8
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Sonny Weems 0 0.3 0.3 0 8.2 4.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5[/CODE]

As you can see above I have taken stats from last season for all the players on the Raptors this season. I took last season stats, so some stats (Most notable Bench warmers) may look better then what they really show. As for DeRozan, I thought about taking stats from Carter in his rookie season, but then realized that Carters stats were fluctuated compared to what DeRozans may look like. So I left those stats to be determined.

I am assuming everyone knows what ORB, DRB and TRB are, so I will give you guys a brief description of the % stats.

[I]Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor. [/I]

If you would like to check out the formulas to calculate these percentages you can do so at [URL="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"]This Link.[/URL]

For debate sake, I will begin by looking at the starting line-up with Wright in it as starting shooting guard.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9 [/CODE]

When we look at those stats, it's quite palpable that our starting line-up is going to be weak at rebounding. Though here's what I expect:

Bosh will continue to dominate the team in rebounding and hopefully help build on the conception of team rebounding. Now the dimension of the starting line-up next season will be changing incredibly. We are losing Marion (Who was an elite rebounder) and Parker who was a good rebounder for the SG position. Marion last season average 8.3 RPG and had a TRB% of 13.8. Some may dispute that this took off some of the pressure of Bargnani in the second half of the season. Which we all know Bargnani really came out of his shell then. With the loss of Marion, and the addition of Turkoglu, rebounding in the starting line-up has dropped drastically, and that line-up may be one of the most terrible rebounding line-ups in the league.

For it to gain any type of success Turkoglu, Bargnani and Wright will all have to improve severely on their rebounding skills. Though, substituting DeRozan in for Wright in the starting line-up may have a change, it would be small to say the least. Turk will have to adapt to getting after it on the boards, well Bargnani will have to become more aggressive. If not, it could because an all out slaughter night in and night out. I do believe Wright can improve more than the rest. Here's why:

Last season Wright played with a great squad in Dallas. He was a lock down defender, and played beside Jason Kidd and Josh Howard, who are both above average rebounders in their positions.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Josh Howard 1.1 3.9 5.1 4.1 14 9.1
Jason Kidd 1 5.1 6.2 3.4 16.4 9.9[/CODE]

Look at those stats, both players grabbed together 20% of available rebounds. If we look at Turkoglu and Jose, they manage to grab about 13% of rebounds. The difference is this season Wright will have more opportunities to grab the rebounds and be belligerent. Especially being the 5th option on offense in the starting line-up he can get after it on offense and defence. Realistically though unless we show good improvement, our starting line-up is going to be in a struggle on the boards.

Next, I will look at the next 6 players (In no particular order) who I feel will be competing for a realistic role off the bench.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT[/CODE]

First I will look at the impact of Jarret Jack and his stint off the bench. I do not seehim playing much other then PG. I see Calderon's minutes dropping some and Jack coming off the bench having the biggest impact. But since this article is on rebounding, I will stay on topic. Jarret Jack is an upgrade in that sense over Calderon off the bench. He is more athletic, but brings different tangibles to the floor. He brings a different pace, which is a quick up tempo style. This style will presumably take away rebound from certain players. It will give odd man rushes so the opportunity to rebound the ball might drop, but not significantly for players. Rebounding wise though I see a drop for Jack this season because our Bench has some above average rebounders.

Next, DeRozan and Belinelli. Belinelli is a bad rebounder. But that is not what Triano will be calling upon him to do. Belinelli will presume an Eddie House type role off the bench if he proves to be consistent, which we are all hoping for. Well on the other hand we have DeRozan. DeRozan will run the floor with Jack, and crash the boards if he plays anything like he did in university. If we compared his stats to Carter in his first year, he would be one of our top rebounders next season. Though I feel obligated not to because Carter was in a different situation, is a different player and I frankly don't take too much out of player comparisons. DeRozan will have opportunities for put backs and have the athletic edge over some players. I can see DeRozan being the second best offensive rebounder behind Bosh next season, if he uses his athleticism to his advantage.

Amir Johnson is an fascinating player. Many believe he will bring it this season, and if he does and gets minutes expect his rebounding numbers to be through the roof. Really though. He already has a 15.1 % TRB and that's with minimum minutes and opportunities. Truth is, if he plays anything near what he is capable of expect him to be a long term fix in Toronto. Though right now Evans is our best rebounder off the bench, I just don't know how much he has left in him. He bring in intimidation and is physical, he is slowly losing his edge. Johnson will give him a hard run for minutes and I will expect competitive practises. Evans really knows how to position himself and rebound though. So it may be hard not to utilize him next season, especially if we are struggling early on, which I expect we will be. Rasho, will be a nice piece off the bench for Bargnani. His rebounding number dropped notably last season compared to his season with the Raptors. That was mainly because his role malformed. I expect them to come up some, back to his time with the Raptors. He is a good rebounder and defender which is why it would be hard not to play him.

Overall, it is safe to say our starting line-up will struggle on the boards and our second unit will bring in the edge off the bench. It does become significant though that our starters will be getting a lot of minutes, and not be able to rebound that great. There is only so much the bench can do. If players like Turk, Bargnani and Wright don't perk up this season it there could be some long nights. Though I am not laying the season on rebounding, I am saying that rebounding will become one of the main factors which will determine if we are contenders or pretenders.

Cheers,
Dustin

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Johnson and Johnson


Wilful Blindness or pure potential? Disregarding everything you know now about Johnson one may continue to only see highlights of Johnson. For this reason, I would like to thank YouTube. YouTube has made people become wilfully blind. It has completely revolutionized the way an average fan see’s a player. You see what happens is, we, as fanatics do not have the networking available to do a full scouting report on players so we reside to highlights we see on YouTube. In the case of Amir Johnson, this has proven quite true. What people don’t know is that Amir Johnson’s main struggle isn’t not enough playing time or chances. His main struggle is his ability to be consistent and persevere.


Then people enquire why Johnson started 24 games last season. And that’s an easy answer. McDyess got traded early in the season and then fell to injury. What people don’t know is that when McDyess came back he said he would come off the bench behind Johnson, but I guess management didn’t have the same idea. After Johnson plays off the bench you virtually see no production from him. Then over time he loses minutes, and when all was said and done he was traded to Milwaukee. Regardless, inconsistency still screamed his name in the 4 seasons he’s been in the league. (Though I wouldn’t hold the first 2 seasons enormously against him)


His potential is through the roof, but is he willing to train to show what he’s worth. I mean we could see a player who rides the bench all season behind Evans and Rasho. Or we could see a player showing tons of fight and hard work, something this team will need to give them a boost when they are down. Johnson role will be primary energy, defence, and making it work on offence. As for the fans, I will leave you to decide whether or not you guys have been wilfully blind to do the media misconstruing things, or if you truly see pure potential in Johnson.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Log Jam - The Wright way


Being a journeyman your whole career always makes a fan wonder why? Why do teams keep trading him? Why aren't we trying to get him? And the most common question is why did we end up with him? Well all in all this can be said about the Toronto Raptors and their acquisition of Antoine Wright from the Dallas Mavericks. He has been traded, but not the main part of the trades. He has been pushed to exceed limits and is always playing with something more than a chip on his shoulder. It should be to no avail that most Raptor fans should make the assumption he will not get valuable minutes, but being vulnerable is one thing and being oblivious is another.


Now we all know that Triano has stated that DeRozan will be our starting shooting guard, which I think everyone can consensually agree with. It gives DeRozan the morale and encouragement he needs to become prolific in the league. Did I mention he can jump really high? Oppose to that his defence isn't exactly all their, something that will be pressed hard on him in the offseason. This is where Wright becomes effective. Some people tend to get caught up in the rotation, and disregard that this is not like a hockey shift. Guaranteed 2-3 starters will be on the game at all times. Wright, will close out quarters, and be primarily used as a main defender.


Rick Carlisle has been stated saying that Wright was the best defender on the squad. Now what makes this more significant is he had to guard the top players in the association night in night out. Kobe, Lebron, Wade are players he guarded each game. It was an exhibition out there for him. The Mavericks team did have 50 wins and made it to the playoffs. Now to use Wright properly is where Triano may or may go wrong. If Triano puts him in the game as one of the top 2 or 3 options as a scorer he would be going wrong. He needs to use him sufficiently and make sure he is not depended to be a scorer on the floor at all times. Triano must also plays chimes in his ears all season long about defence. Keep him consistent and motivated to make the necessary stops. Unless of course, anyone wants to see Turk or DeRozan get lit up for 81 anytime soon. It will be Wrights job to finish the games out on defence, and Jack will presumably be in the game when we need to score. DeRozan may be able to jump, really high, but with all the transactions made after the draft it's hard to put DeRozan in positions like that with so many other options.


With enough emphasis, Wright is strong, rugged player. He has been known for saying that if he wasn't going to be a pro basketball player, he was bound to be a pro football player. That quote there talks a lot about his character and his drive. He may not be a Ben Wallace or Bruce Bowen type player, but for now he is our best option and if Triano utilizes him correctly, he may help make this teams defence a momentous factor that helps produce victories. Let's not take the wrong way, but go the Wright way.


Cheers,

Dustin