Wednesday, August 26, 2009

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marcus Banks 0.2 0.3 0.5 3 5.8 4.4
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT
Quincy Douby 0.4 0.6 1 4.9 6.4 5.6
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Patick O'Bryant 0.5 2 2.5 4.8 20.6 12.8
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Sonny Weems 0 0.3 0.3 0 8.2 4.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5[/CODE]

As you can see above I have taken stats from last season for all the players on the Raptors this season. I took last season stats, so some stats (Most notable Bench warmers) may look better then what they really show. As for DeRozan, I thought about taking stats from Carter in his rookie season, but then realized that Carters stats were fluctuated compared to what DeRozans may look like. So I left those stats to be determined.

I am assuming everyone knows what ORB, DRB and TRB are, so I will give you guys a brief description of the % stats.

[I]Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor. [/I]

If you would like to check out the formulas to calculate these percentages you can do so at [URL="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html"]This Link.[/URL]

For debate sake, I will begin by looking at the starting line-up with Wright in it as starting shooting guard.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Andrea Bargnani 0.9 4.4 5.3 3.4 16.4 10
Chris Bosh 2.8 7.2 10 8.7 22 15.4
Hedo Turkoglu 0.6 4.7 5.3 1.8 14.2 8.2
Antoine Wright 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 7.7 5
Jose Calderon 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 8.9 4.9 [/CODE]

When we look at those stats, it's quite palpable that our starting line-up is going to be weak at rebounding. Though here's what I expect:

Bosh will continue to dominate the team in rebounding and hopefully help build on the conception of team rebounding. Now the dimension of the starting line-up next season will be changing incredibly. We are losing Marion (Who was an elite rebounder) and Parker who was a good rebounder for the SG position. Marion last season average 8.3 RPG and had a TRB% of 13.8. Some may dispute that this took off some of the pressure of Bargnani in the second half of the season. Which we all know Bargnani really came out of his shell then. With the loss of Marion, and the addition of Turkoglu, rebounding in the starting line-up has dropped drastically, and that line-up may be one of the most terrible rebounding line-ups in the league.

For it to gain any type of success Turkoglu, Bargnani and Wright will all have to improve severely on their rebounding skills. Though, substituting DeRozan in for Wright in the starting line-up may have a change, it would be small to say the least. Turk will have to adapt to getting after it on the boards, well Bargnani will have to become more aggressive. If not, it could because an all out slaughter night in and night out. I do believe Wright can improve more than the rest. Here's why:

Last season Wright played with a great squad in Dallas. He was a lock down defender, and played beside Jason Kidd and Josh Howard, who are both above average rebounders in their positions.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Josh Howard 1.1 3.9 5.1 4.1 14 9.1
Jason Kidd 1 5.1 6.2 3.4 16.4 9.9[/CODE]

Look at those stats, both players grabbed together 20% of available rebounds. If we look at Turkoglu and Jose, they manage to grab about 13% of rebounds. The difference is this season Wright will have more opportunities to grab the rebounds and be belligerent. Especially being the 5th option on offense in the starting line-up he can get after it on offense and defence. Realistically though unless we show good improvement, our starting line-up is going to be in a struggle on the boards.

Next, I will look at the next 6 players (In no particular order) who I feel will be competing for a realistic role off the bench.

[CODE]Players ORB DRB TRB ORB% DRB% TRB%
Marco Belinelli 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 7.5 4.4
Reggie Evans 1.7 2.9 4.6 14.1 23.9 19
Jarrett Jack 0.5 2.8 3.4 1.8 9.5 5.6
Amir Johnson 1.6 2.1 3.7 13.1 17.2 15.1
Rasho Nesterovic 1.3 2.1 3.4 8.4 13.5 10.9
Demar DeRozan DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT DBT[/CODE]

First I will look at the impact of Jarret Jack and his stint off the bench. I do not seehim playing much other then PG. I see Calderon's minutes dropping some and Jack coming off the bench having the biggest impact. But since this article is on rebounding, I will stay on topic. Jarret Jack is an upgrade in that sense over Calderon off the bench. He is more athletic, but brings different tangibles to the floor. He brings a different pace, which is a quick up tempo style. This style will presumably take away rebound from certain players. It will give odd man rushes so the opportunity to rebound the ball might drop, but not significantly for players. Rebounding wise though I see a drop for Jack this season because our Bench has some above average rebounders.

Next, DeRozan and Belinelli. Belinelli is a bad rebounder. But that is not what Triano will be calling upon him to do. Belinelli will presume an Eddie House type role off the bench if he proves to be consistent, which we are all hoping for. Well on the other hand we have DeRozan. DeRozan will run the floor with Jack, and crash the boards if he plays anything like he did in university. If we compared his stats to Carter in his first year, he would be one of our top rebounders next season. Though I feel obligated not to because Carter was in a different situation, is a different player and I frankly don't take too much out of player comparisons. DeRozan will have opportunities for put backs and have the athletic edge over some players. I can see DeRozan being the second best offensive rebounder behind Bosh next season, if he uses his athleticism to his advantage.

Amir Johnson is an fascinating player. Many believe he will bring it this season, and if he does and gets minutes expect his rebounding numbers to be through the roof. Really though. He already has a 15.1 % TRB and that's with minimum minutes and opportunities. Truth is, if he plays anything near what he is capable of expect him to be a long term fix in Toronto. Though right now Evans is our best rebounder off the bench, I just don't know how much he has left in him. He bring in intimidation and is physical, he is slowly losing his edge. Johnson will give him a hard run for minutes and I will expect competitive practises. Evans really knows how to position himself and rebound though. So it may be hard not to utilize him next season, especially if we are struggling early on, which I expect we will be. Rasho, will be a nice piece off the bench for Bargnani. His rebounding number dropped notably last season compared to his season with the Raptors. That was mainly because his role malformed. I expect them to come up some, back to his time with the Raptors. He is a good rebounder and defender which is why it would be hard not to play him.

Overall, it is safe to say our starting line-up will struggle on the boards and our second unit will bring in the edge off the bench. It does become significant though that our starters will be getting a lot of minutes, and not be able to rebound that great. There is only so much the bench can do. If players like Turk, Bargnani and Wright don't perk up this season it there could be some long nights. Though I am not laying the season on rebounding, I am saying that rebounding will become one of the main factors which will determine if we are contenders or pretenders.

Cheers,
Dustin

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